Bracketrending

As we close in on March, I would like to introduce the concept of Bracketrending. This looks at what the committee did last year and the year before and pitting that against our 'key criteria' such as poll ranking, RPI ranking, last 10 games, quality wins, quality losses. Although you can't create the entire field based on a mathematical extrapolation (see 'zona last year), we can avoid some major pitfalls in attempting to minimize our QPI rating.

How much does RPI matter? What about poll rankings? Here is a link to last year's RPI, last year's polls, and corresponding seedings.

We're closing in on our 1,000th hit!

JK’s Bracket 2/23

Nice update. Love that I see our hit count has doubled since we brought TD on board, although I feel most of it is Dempster trolling around waiting for something to rip on.

Here's my quick attempt at a Bracket:

Rank	Seed	Team
1	1	Kansas
2	1	Kentucky
3	1	Syracuse
4	1	Purdue
5	2	Villanova
6	2	Duke
7	2	Kansas State
8	2	West Virginia
9	3	Ohio State
10	3	Georgetown
11	3	Michigan State
12	3	Vanderbilt
13	4	New Mexico
14	4	Pittsburgh
15	4	Wisconsin
16	4	Tennessee
17	5	Butler
18	5	BYU
19	5	Gonzaga
20	5	Texas
21	6	Temple
22	6	Texas A&M
23	6	Wake Forest
24	6	UNI
25	7	Maryland
26	7	Baylor
27	7	Richmond
28	7	Xavier
29	8	Missouri
30	8	Clemson
31	8	UNLV
32	8	Oklahoma State
33	9	Florida State
34	9	California
35	9	Louisville
36	9	UTEP
37	10	Georgia Tech
38	10	Virginia Tech
39	10	Marquette
40	10	Illinois
41	11	UAB
42	11	Florida
43	11	Rhode Island
44	11	Siena
45	12	UCONN
46	12	St. Mary's
47	12	Dayton
48	12	Utah State
49	13	Old Dominion
50	13	Memphis
51	13	Cornell
52	13	Northeastern
53	14	Kent State
54	14	Murray State
55	14	Oakland
56	14	Weber State
57	15	Sam Houston State
58	15	Wofford
59	15	UC Santa Barbara
60	15	Morgan State
61	16	Jacksonville
62	16	Coastal Carolina
63	16	North Texas
64	16	Stony Brook
65	16	Robert Morris

 

 

The Pill's Brack 2/22

Things have changed considerably in the past week. Bracketbuster weekend is over which has made the picture a bit more clear for us. Unfortunately for the Siena's, Northeastern's, and Louisiana Tech's of the world, they must win their conference tourneys now. I've added a First Four Out category just for a bit of motivation for those institutions. Also, the conference breakdown has been included. Here are the bracket rankings:

Rank	Seed	Team		Rank	Seed	Team
1	1	Kansas		33	9	Virginia Tech
2	1	Kentucky		34	9	Utah State
3	1	Syracuse		35	9	Florida State
4	1	Purdue		36	9	Oklahoma State
5	2	Duke		37	10	Georgia Tech
6	2	Kansas State		38	10	UTEP
7	2	Villanova		39	10	California
8	2	West Virginia		40	10	Old Dominion
9	3	New Mexico		41	11	Louisville
10	3	Ohio State		42	11	Cornell
11	3	Georgetown		43	11	Siena
12	3	Pittsburgh		44	11	Florida
13	4	Vanderbilt		45	12	Connecticut
14	4	Michigan State		46	12	Illinois
15	4	Wisconsin		47	12	Rhode Island
16	4	Brigham Young		48	12	Saint Mary's
17	5	Butler		49	13	Marquette
18	5	Temple		50	13	Northeastern
19	5	Tennessee		51	13	Kent State
20	5	Gonzaga		52	13	Murray State
21	6	Texas A&M		53	14	Oakland
22	6	Northern Iowa		54	14	Weber State
23	6	Wake Forest		55	14	Sam Houston State
24	6	Texas		56	14	Wofford
25	7	Richmond		57	15	UC Santa Barbara
26	7	Xavier		58	15	Morgan State
27	7	Baylor		59	15	Jacksonville
28	7	Maryland		60	15	Coastal Carolina
29	8	UNLV		61	16	North Texas
30	8	Missouri		62	16	Stony Brook
31	8	Clemson		63	16	Robert Morris
32	8	UAB		64	16	Lehigh
				65	16	Jackson State

 

Last Four In: Marquette, Saint Mary's, Rhode Island, Illinois

Last Four Out: San Diego State, Dayton, Wichita State, William & Mary

Next Four Out: Charlotte, Arizona State, Memphis, Mississippi State

First Four Out: Alcorn State, Marist, Bryant University, Chicago State

Conference Breakdown

Big East - 8

ACC - 7

Big 12 - 7

Big Ten - 5

Atlantic 10 - 4

SEC - 4

Mountain West - 3

Colonial - 2

Conference USA - 2

West Coast - 2

First Time, Long Time

Hello, my name is Tyler Donahue and apparently I've been deemed worthy enough to be a contributing author to TQ465. Thanks for the nomination, JK. Much appreciated. Brief Background/Qualifications:

-Participated in brackets since I was knee high to a corn-stalk.

-Once spent 8 hours in a library in 2005 concocting a bracket-busting formula that led to me having Nate Robinson and the Washington Huskies in the Championship Game. Ok maybe that isn't a quality qualification.

-Avid supporter of: RPI, Pac-10 Basketball (it will rise again), Kevin Pittsnoggle, and the glory of the Thursday/Friday first-round matchups.

I've received some recent fan-mail believe it or not. Let's take a minute to open up the mail-bag. Dale from Moscow, ID writes:

"Tyler, my wife keeps telling me that Syracuse is a lock for the Final Four. Well, she's now my ex-wife, but can I really count on Syracuse to run deep in the tourney when they lost an exhibition game back in November?"

Great question Dale,

It's always important to take early season losses in stride. Everyone knows 'Cuse lost a lot last season. Flynn, Devendorf and Paul Harris all leaving early were huge blows. Devendorf and Harris worked with Boeheim through the rough years (two straight NIT appearances before last year) and were battle tested. Flynn stepped in in 07-08 and was named BigEast rookie of the year. Either way, the scoring and leadership would be sorely missed. There were so many question marks that certainly wouldn't be answered by the second game of the year for the Orange. Who would pick up the slack for the departed starters? Would Wesley Johnson still carry the promise he held two years earlier with Iowa State? Could Boeheim build on the Sweet 16 appearance or could the program slip into the doldrums it experienced after its Championship run of 2003? All these questions would be answered in due time. Don't hold the loss to Le Moyne (is that the capital of Iowa?) against the 'Cuse. Outliers and freak occurrences happen from time to time, especially when a team is building chemistry, developing conditioning etc.

Bottom line: Le Moyne was a trap game. The cross-town, red-headed step-child of 'Cuse was looking for blood. Who knew Dolphins were so aggressive? 'Cuse had nothing to gain from this one and everything to lose. Don't expect to see this matchup re-scheduled anytime soon. 'Cuse didn't play poorly and actually had the lead with 17 seconds to go, the 'Fins hit a three and tacked on some free throws to finish it off. Brandon Triche was getting his first minutes of the season and Scoop Jardine was acclimating himself to his new role on the squad. Not to mention Johnson getting comfortable in the offense.

When push comes to shove, examine the age old adage: 'Body of Work'. What have Syracuse done since? Well following the end of exhibition season, Boeheim rattled off 13 straight wins including wins versus three, then-Top 15 teams as well as wins versus tournament hopefuls Cornell and Seton Hall. While the inability to defend the Carrier Dome in losses versus Pitt and Louisville have been discerning, both squads have tournament tickets on the radar and are quality losses if you value such a thing. Questions about Wesley Johnson? Not really, on the short-list for National Player of the Year, he has taken his rangy size and speed to glass, rebounding with ferocity (not to mention his scoring dropping 16 per game). We haven't even mentioned sharp-shooter and 'Cuse legacy, Andy Rautins and senior big-man Onuaku. Both warrant a post (though not as long-winded) of their own.

In the end remember a few things:

1) Syracuse have been tested all year in the Big East

2) They are coached by a living legend in the game, Jim Boeheim who has won it all before.

3) Remember that suffocating zone defense that buried teams back in 2003? Well . . . its back.

4) Looking for a marquee player that can lead your team to tournament glory? Look no farther than Wesley Johnson.

Great question Dale, hopefully this conversation with your wife wasn't the straw that broke the camel's back in your relationship. Either way, win your bracket this season and you can buy yourself a newer model.

I'll throw my next mail-bag question out to the rest of the Q465 crew:

Trisha from Youngstown, OH writes:

'Great blog guys, keep it up. Why is the Big Ten Tournament being played in Indianapolis over the next few years? Some of the best performances in recent memory took place in the United Center: Mike Conley, James Augustine and Brian Cook to name a few. With such a large Big Ten alumni base in Chicago, doesn't it make more sense to have the tourney in the city?'